NFL, but his fantasy value speaks for itself. Culpepper had his best year
statistically since 2000, throwing for almost 3,500 yards, with a 25-11 touchdown
to interception ratio. The Vikings tossed around the possibility of trading Randy
Moss, but he will be back. They also added another big possession receiver in
Marcus Robinson, who had a nice 2003 season with Baltimore, and is someone
who will, at least keep defenses honest.
2) Michael Vick, Atlanta. Vick’s leg injury in last years’ preseason was a
devastating blow to the Falcons. Vick did return for the last five games, and
showed that he was not afraid of getting hurt, even gaining 141 yards on the
ground against Carolina. Vick rushed for 777 yards in 2002, and while he could
surpass that if he wanted, look for Atlanta management to discourage it. Vick is a
better bet to break 3,000 yards throwing for the first time in his career, especially
with an improved receiving cast, alongside Peerless Price.
3) Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia. The Eagles have lost the last three NFC
championship games, with the wide receiver taking most of the blame for the last
one. Enter Terrell Owens, who will give McNabb a legitimate number one receiver.
McNabb’s overall numbers in 2003 were pretty good, considering that he
struggled during the first six games of the season with a thumb injury. A fully
healthy McNabb, coupled with a motivated Owens, should go a long way towards
McNabb having his best professional year.
4) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis. Manning’s seven year, $99.2 million contract
with a $34.5 million signing bones, was shocking on many levels. The first
thought was that every other top quarterback in the league is vastly underpaid.
The other thought was how would the Colts be able to pay the rest of their
players under the salary cap? The Colts defense is the unit that has absorbed
some losses, while the offense remains pretty much intact. There is no reason to
think that Manning will not have another huge season.
5) Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck took his game to a new level in
2003, even though it ended badly with an interception return for a touchdown
that ended their playoff run. However, Hasselbeck is the son of an NFL player
and he has enough confidence not to let that rattle him heading into this season.
It also helps Hasselbeck that he has two potential 1,000 yard receivers, in Koren
Robinson and Darrell Jackson, and a 1,400 yard rusher in Shaun Alexander. Look
for big things in 2004.
6) Steve McNair, Tennessee. McNair had the highest quarterback rating in the
NFL last season, but he is never going to lead the league in passing yards. Part
of the reason is the style of Tennessee’s offense. The other part is that McNair
always seems to be battling a number of injuries, although no one plays in more
pain. The loss of Justin McCareins is a blow to the offense, but they still have
three quality receivers in Derrick Mason, Tyrone Calico and Drew Bennett. A good
offensive line was also left intact.
7) Aaron Brooks, New Orleans. Brooks is another one of those players who is
more attractive as a fantasy player, than as an NFL quarterback. The Saints tend
to get into a lot of high scoring affairs, which means a lot of pass attempts for
Brooks. Brooks has averaged 535 attempts over the last three seasons, and he
should have somewhere in that neighborhood again this year. Brooks only ran
for 175 yards last season, after averaging over 300 the two prior seasons. Look
for Brooks to run a little more this year.
8) Chad Pennington, NY Jets. The Jets losing Pennington for the first half of the
year was the biggest blow to any team, outside of the Falcons losing Mike Vick.
Pennington means to the Jets what Tom Brady means to the Patriots. In 2002,
he showed he was one of the most accurate passers in the league. Now he has
two big weapons in Santana Moss and Justin McCareins, who came over from
Tennessee for a second round pick. Both receivers should have big years, and
Pennington will quickly return to his 2002 form.
9) Trent Green, Kansas City. It was no secret that Kansas City spent some time
in the off-season looking for Green’s future replacement. Does that mean that
the Chiefs’ coaching staff is starting to see some decline? Certainly Green’s play
in 2003 did nothing to warrant any alarm, he threw for over 4,000 yards in
leading one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses. There is concern that neither
Johnnie Morton nor Eddie Kennison are true number one receivers. Of course,
having a tight end like Tony Gonzalez helps offset that.
10) Marc Bulger, St. Louis. There was some earlier talk that Bulger and Kurt
Warner would battle it out in training camp for the starting job, but few people
actually believed that Warner would be kept around another season. Bulger had
a good first season as a starter in 2003, but he needs to cut down on his 22
interceptions if he wants to go to the next level. Now that Warner has left for the
New York Giants, Bulger will be more relaxed, and able to thrive, knowing the
team finally belongs to him alone.
11) Tom Brady, New England. Brady might be America’s darling and the owner
of two Super Bowl rings, but that does not always translate into fantasy
dominance. The good news for the Patriots is that their running back situation is
upgraded with Corey Dillon, but that could lower Brady’s pass attempts. David
Givens and Deion Branch are underrated at wide receiver, and if tight end Daniel
Graham can get rid of his case of the “dropsies”, then Brady will have the threat
over the middle he has been lacking.
12) Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville. Leftwich came into last season as a highly
touted rookie, and didn’t do much to disappoint. Of course he had some rough
times, as all first year quarterbacks do, but overall he showed that he will soon
be an upper echelon quarterback. Leftwich played in 15 games last year, but only
started the last 13 of the season. If you project those 13 games out to a full
season, and give him a bump for not being a rookie anymore, Leftwich can easily
get up to the 3,500 yard passing range.
13) Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay. It is hard to believe that Brad Johnson is just
two years removed from leading Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl. Coach Jon Gruden
clearly wasn’t thrilled with Johnson’s play in 2003, and the Buccaneers were
rumored to be considering brining in a number of players (Mark Brunell, Jeff
Garcia, Rich Gannon) to compete with him. For now, Johnson is safe with Brian
Griese backing him up, although Johnson will clearly be looking over his shoulder
all season if he isn’t performing well.
14) Jake Delhomme, Carolina. There is a great buzz surrounding Delhomme
due to his heroic effort in the Super Bowl, but what people are forgetting is that
he also had a strong regular season. Delhomme threw for over 3,200 yards in an
offense that was heavily dependant on the running game. The Panthers have
two excellent backs in Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster so Delhomme will
never get the pass attempts to get to 4,000 yards, but that doesn’t mean that
he is not capable of doing it if necessary. hat he also had a strong regular
season. the pressure off. elp. e number three pick overall in the
15) Jeff Garcia, Cleveland. Garcia heads to the Midwest after five solid seasons
with the 49ers. Garcia might have had his troubles personally with Terrell Owens,
but it was comforting to have that big 6’3” target coming back to the ball when
Garcia was scrambling away from pressure. The Browns have three solid
receivers in Quincy Morgan, Andre Davis and Dennis Northcutt, but none are the
quality of Owens. The offensive line is in shambles, so Garcia will be running for
his life in 2004.
16) Jake Plummer, Denver. Plummer went to the Denver Broncos in 2003 with
lofty expectations and an even loftier contract. The results of Plummer’s first year
were more good than bad. He threw for over 2,100 yards in just 11 games, but
more importantly, had 15 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. He also threw for
a 62.6 completion percentage, by far the highest of his career. Plummer’s job will
be harder this year though, with Clinton Portis being traded to Washington, and
the retirement of Shannon Sharpe.
17) Brett Favre, Green Bay. Favre threw for his fewest passing yards since
1993, and he will never be the 4,000 yard passer again. Some of that is due to
the breakout career of Ahman Green. The other part is Favre is starting to show
signs of someone who is entering his 14th NFL season. Despite a new reliance
on the running game, Favre still threw for 32 touchdowns, albeit with 21
interceptions. Packer management would be more than happy to sacrifice some
of those touchdowns for a few less interceptions.
18) David Carr, Houston. Carr was the number one pick overall in the 2002
draft, and is another player that is expected to turn up his play a few notches.
Carr played in just 12 games last year due to shoulder and ankle injuries, and in
three of those, he only played sparingly. If you take the nine complete full games
that Carr played and project that out to a 16 game schedule, Carr’s numbers
project to 3,400 yards and 16 touchdowns. Carr will further be aided by the
development of his young wide receiving crew.
19) Rich Gannon, Oakland. All indications are that Gannon is progressing nicely
from his shoulder surgery and should be available to be the starter this year.
Gannon is set to make $7 million in 2004 and the Raiders could release him, or
make him take a pay cut now that Kerry Collins is also aboard. If Gannon does
stay, having a healthy Jerry Porter back would go a long way to improving an
anemic offense. Gannon could be a good fantasy sleeper pick if he stays healthy,
but that is a big question mark.
20) Josh McCown, Arizona. McCown is a third year player from Sam Houston
State, who finally got a chance to show his stuff, starting the last three games of
the season. The Cardinals lost his first two starts, but McCown showed a flair for
the dramatic in a comeback win over Minnesota, that knocked the Vikings out of
the playoffs. Green reportedly likes his leadership and big play ability, and Green
can groom him from scratch in his system. Having receivers like Anquan Boldin
and Larry Fitzgerald also helps.
21) Mark Brunell, Washington. Brunell will be 34 before the start of the season,
but he still has the tools to be a top NFL quarterback. The problem with Brunell is
that he has taken a lot of hits over the years, and you do not know if he will hold
up physically. Brunell played sparingly in 2003 and he will likely be rusty in the
beginning of the year. The Redskins may have the best backup in the league in
Patrick Ramsey, and it is conceivable that Ramsey comes in for an injured Brunell,
and never relinquishes the starting job.
22) Joey Harrington, Detroit. It is now the third year in the league for
Harrington and it is time for him to show that he is worthy of being the 3rd pick
overall in the 2002 draft. In Harrington’s defense, he hasn’t been exactly loaded
with offensive weapons. The return of Charles Rogers, who missed most of the
2003 campaign, and the additions of receivers Roy Williams and Tai Streets will
help. The Lions also upgraded at running back with rookie Kevin Jones.
Harrington must cut his 22 interceptions down by at least 25%.
23) Carson Palmer, Cincinnati. Palmer is one of the more intriguing selections of
this year. He has been named the starter for the Bengals, over Jon Kitna, who
had a solid 2003 season for the Bengals. Part of the reason Palmer is starting is
due to his tremendous potential. The other part is that he is being paid way too
much money to sit on the bench. With Kitna still on the team as his backup,
Palmer is a very risky selection as Coach Marvin Lewis could pull him if he has a
couple of bad games.
24) Drew Bledsoe, Buffalo. There is no quarterback in the league who had a
more precipitous drop in play in 2003 than Drew Bledsoe. In 2002, Bledsoe threw
for 4,359 yards and 24 touchdowns. In 2003 those numbers were 2,860 and 11
respectively. Bledsoe knows that he has to perform well this year or he will lose
his job in 2005 to JP Losman. It appears though, that Bledsoe’s immobility and
poor decision making in the pocket have finally caught up to him. Look for a poor
2004 as well.
25) Kyle Boller, Baltimore. Boller was the starter for the first nine games of
2003, before suffering a thigh injury that basically ended his season. Boller only
had one game where he threw for over 156 yards, but he showed a strong arm
and poise for a rookie. He was also hampered by a conservative offense and a
mediocre, at best, receiving group. Look for continued improvement, but the
Ravens still have problems at the receiver position, even with the signing of Kevin
Johnson
26) Rex Grossman, Chicago. The criticism surrounding Grossman coming out of
college was that he was a little small at 6’1” to be an elite quarterback.
Grossman did not take a snap for the first 13 weeks of 2003, but was forced into
action for the last three games. Grossman led the Bears to two wins, but from a
fantasy standpoint, he seems like a quarterback who might be more effective on
the field, than as your fantasy starter. The Bears’ average receiving core is
another reason that Grossman is a risky pick, at best.
27) Tim Rattay, San Francisco. Rattay underwent surgery for a torn groin, but
he still projects to be the starting quarterback. Rattay started three games last
year and showed he could manage a game, winning two of three and averaging
two touchdowns and 211 yards passing per game. Rattay’s projected statistics
get downgraded due to a set of young receivers led by Brandon Lloyd, Cedric
Wilson, Rashaun Woods and Derrick Hamilton. They did sign Curtis Conway who
can be of some help.
28) Tommy Maddox, Pittsburgh. Maddox had a good year statistically in 2003
with over 3,400 yards passing. However, a lot of that damage was over the first
four games of the season when he averaged 292 yards. Maddox only threw for
more than 266 yards twice the rest of the season, and he averaged only 135
yards in his last three games. Maddox will hold off first round pick, Ben
Roethlisberger and keep his starting job in 2004, but Maddox seems to be a
player who is a starting into a decline phase.
29) Vinny Testaverde, Dallas. Bill Parcells stunned NFL observers by releasing
incumbent Quincy Carter and promoting former Jets quarterback Vinny
Testaverde. Everyone knows that Testaverde is one of Parcells’ favorite players,
and he may be a gamer, but he is a gamer that will be turning 41 years old in
November. Carter might have had his share of faults as quarterback, but he did a
decent job last year, and had more fantasy value than Testaverde.
30) A.J. Feeley, Miami. Update 9/3. As of this moment, Feeley is in a dead even
heat with Jay Fiedler in becoming the starter. The Dolphins took a bit of a gamble
in acquiring Feeley for a 2005 second round pick. Feeley’s entire resume is
starting five games in Philadelphia in 2002, playing well for an injured Donovan
McNabb. After acquiring David Boston, the Dolphins are loaded at the skill
positions, although the offensive line is still suspect. If Feeley struggles, he will
feel the same heat from fans and media that Jay Fiedler was accustomed to.
31) Kurt Warner, NY Giants. In going to the Giants, Warner will try to resurrect
a career that has gone from Super Bowl MVP, to an almost unwanted spare part.
Warner will have one very good receiver in Amani Toomer, and a very good tight
end in Jeremy Shockey. What he will not have, is a solid offensive line to protect
him. Warner should begin the season as the starter, and he should have a
moderate amount of success. If not, then New York will turn over the reigns to
number one overall pick, Eli Manning.
32) Drew Brees, San Diego. Update 9/3: Phillip Rivers has ended his holdout,
but Brees is looking good so far this preseason. Brees is currently projected as
the starter. Brees only started 11 games last year, after getting benched for
Doug Flutie. If that wasn’t a big enough blow to his confidence, the Chargers
were ready to hand his job to an unproven rookie in Phillip Rivers.
33) Kerry Collins, Oakland. Last year with the Giants, Collins had a 24% drop in
passing yards from 2002 to 2003. Part of that was due to poor play, and part of
it was that the Giants were just plain woeful. Collins will battle Rich Gannon for
the starting quarterback job, and it is an even race at this point.
34) Jay Fielder, Miami. Update 9/3. As of this moment, Fiedler is in a dead even
heat with A.J Feeley in becoming the starter. If you took a poll of most scouts,
more than half would likely say that Fiedler is the better player. Look for Jay to
get some time this year.
35) Jon Kitna, Cincinnati. How did Jon Kitna get rewarded for throwing for over
3,500 yards with 26 touchdowns and just 15 interceptions? He got a one way
ticket to the bench. Kitna will definitely be staying in Cincinnati this season, so
there is a good chance he will see some action as the starter.
36) Patrick Ramsey, Washington. Ramsey might be the best backup
quarterback in the league, and there is a good chance that he will see some
action this year. The jury is still out on whether Mark Brunell can stay healthy for
a whole season after missing most of last year.
37) Eli Manning, NY Giants. Manning was the top pick in the 2004 draft and it
looked like he would start right away with the departure of Kerry Collins. With
the addition of Kurt Warner, there will be a little less pressure on the rookie, who
can spend at least part of his first year getting acclimated in the NFL.
38) Phillip Rivers, San Diego. Update 8/15. Rivers is still holding out, and we
are projecting Drew Brees as the starter. Rivers was the fourth overall selection
in the 2004 draft as he put up incredible numbers in NC State’s passing offense.
Despite his unorthodox delivery, Rivers will struggle as all rookies do, but he has
the ability to develop into an above average NFL starter.
39) Chris Simms, Tampa Bay. Simms appears to have beaten out Brian Griese
for the number two quarterback job. Brad Johnson has a very up and down 2003
campaign, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Simms get some starts this year.
40) Drew Henson, Dallas. Henson was looking like the emergency quarterback
until the Cowboys unceremoniously dumped Quincy Carter. Now Henson will be
the backup quarterback, and a Vinny Testaverde injury away from being the
starter. Henson is still very raw at this point, and will struggle if he plays.
