that he is the new fantasy version of Marshall Faulk. What make Tomlinson’s
2003 statistics all the more impressive is that he did it without an effective
passing game. Opposing defenses geared up to stop him every week and they
couldn’t. The Chargers will still have problems passing the ball this year whether
it is Drew Brees or Philip Rivers starting at quarterback, but Tomlinson should
continue to pile up the numbers, barring injury.
2) Priest Holmes, Kansas City. The Chiefs invested a first round pick in 2003 on
running back Larry Johnson, which made people think that Holmes’ playing time
might go down some, but Johnson barely got on the field. Holmes has all around
value as a fantasy player, but what really jumps out at you is the 51 touchdowns
he has scored the last two seasons. He also plays in a high octane offense that
averaged a whopping 30 points per game last year, and has no plans to slow
down under coach Dick Vermeil.
3) Clinton Portis, Washington. There will be a lot of pressure for Portis to
perform in Washington this year, as Washington traded a great cornerback for
him in Champ Bailey, and a second round pick. Portis also signed an 8 year, $50.5
million contract, and is out to prove that his success the first two years is more
based on his talent, then an impressive Broncos’ offensive line. Portis will have
an adjustment playing on a new team and in a new conference, but he will still
put up big numbers.
4) Ahman Green, Green Bay. 2003 was a breakout year for Green, as he, and
not Brett Favre, became the focal point of the Green Bay offense. Green
increased his rushing yardage 51%, to almost 1,900 and he is now considered
among the games best. The only downside of Green’s game is that he continues
to fumble. He had seven last year, with the Packers losing five of them. While
coach Mike Sherman would love to eliminate that problem, it won’t keep Green off
the field and he should have another big campaign.
5) Shaun Alexander, Seattle. This is a big year for Alexander who will become a
free agent at the end of the year. The shelf life of a running back in the NFL is
limited, so Alexander is motivated knowing this maybe his only chance at a big
pay day. From a fantasy standpoint, Alexander does it all. He runs for yards, he
scores touchdowns and he catches the ball. He is also playing for a good team
that is going to keep him on the field as much as possible.
6) Deuce McAllister, New Orleans. What do Jamal Lewis, Priest Homes,
LaDainain Tomlinson, Ahman Green and McAllister have in common? They were
the five runners last year to break 2,000 in total rushing and receiving yards.
McAllister is probably the least known nationally of the bunch, but anyone who
gains more than 100 yards in nine straight NFL games, as he did in 2003, has to
be considered a superstar. You would like to see Deuce get his touchdowns back
to 2002 levels, but he is a high pick regardless.
7) Jamal Lewis, Baltimore. Lewis is coming off a season where he was the AP
offensive player of the year, and just missed breaking Eric Dickerson’s season
rushing record of 2,105 yards. The question surrounding Lewis in 2004 is that he
was charged on federal drug conspiracy charges in February. If the legal
proceedings force Lewis to miss some action in 2004, then the running back duty
would fall to backups Musa Smith and Chester Taylor. There is not much likelihood
of that happening however.
8) Fred Taylor, Jacksonville. It is hard to believe that Taylor is entering his 7th
NFL season. Taylor always had the skills to be one of the best runners in the
league and he has finally been healthy the last two seasons to prove it. Taylor
should be helped by the fact that Byron Leftwich is no longer a rookie, and
defenses will not be able to pay as much attention to him. The Jaguars’ offensive
line is quietly one of the strengths of the team and they have added solid
veterans, Ephraim Salaam and Mike Compton.
9) Domanick Davis, Houston. Davis might have been the steal of the 2003 draft
as a fourth round pick out of LSU. Davis played in 14 games, but only started in
10. If you take the 10 games that he started and project that out to 16 games,
Davis’ total would have been a lot closer to 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Davis will also be the beneficiary of having a healthy quarterback in David Carr
and the overall maturation of a young Texans offense.
10) Kevan Barlow, San Francisco. With Garrison Hearst now playing in Denver,
Barlow will have his first chance in four seasons to be a full time back. That
means he will far surpass the 200 carries that he had in 2003. It also means that
opposing defenses will be designed around stopping him, especially with the
49ers’ suspect passing game. Barlow should see his lofty 5.1 yards per carry go
down, but he will be over the 1,300 yard mark with the extra carries. Barlow is
also an effective receiver out of the backfield.
11) Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia. At 5’8” and 200 pounds, Westbrook is small
back physically, but he runs like he is a lot bigger. Westbrook had an impressive
2003 season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, before tearing his left triceps tendon
in the last game of the regular season. With Duce Staley now in Pittsburgh,
Westbrook will only have to share time with Correll Buckhalter. Westbrook will
come back healthy in 2004 and pick up some of Staley’s yards, and the majority
of his 52 catches last year.
12) Edgerrin James, Indianapolis. James tore his ACL halfway through the
2001 season, and he just started showing his old form in 2003. James may never
be the 1,700 yard back he was before the injury, but he is a productive player.
James gets the benefit of playing with one of the most prolific passing offense in
the NFL. Rarely will you see a team putting eight men in the box to stop James.
James has added value a fantasy player, as he knows how to get into the end
zone, and is a good receiver out of the backfield.
13) Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati. After barely getting off the bench in his first two
NFL seasons, Johnson burst onto the scene when Corey Dillon was banged up.
Johnson always had the power at 233 pounds, but his quickness was a question
mark. After gaining almost 1,000 yards after starting just five games, Johnson
showed he has all the skills to exceed. Johnson is the starter now with Dillon
gone, but he will be a free agent at the end of year, and the Bengals will give
rookie Chris Perry a lot of looks.
14) Tiki Barber, NY Giants. It seems that every year the Giants are looking for
another running back to share the load with Barber. First, it was the “thunder
and lightning” experiment with Ron Dayne, which failed miserably. New York then
brought in Dorsey Levens last year, but he was limited to 68 attempts. As of right
now, Dayne and Delvin Joyce are the backups, and neither will make a strong
push for playing time. One item to watch out for is that Barber’s touchdowns
went from 11 in 2002 to just 3 in 2003
15) Duce Staley, Pittsburgh. Staley comes over from Philadelphia where he had
to split time with two other runners. After signing a five year, $14 million deal as
a free agent, Staley will be the number one option, with Jerome Bettis in the
backup role. Staley is 29 years old, but he has only 1,200 carries for his career,
and is still in his prime. Staley doesn’t have the skills to be an elite runner in the
league, but he should get close to 1,000 yards and 50 catches, and continue to
find the end zone.
16) Marshall Faulk, St. Louis. When fantasy football players hear the name
Marshall Faulk, the first reaction is to salivate. Consider for example, the numbers
Faulk put up from 1998-2001. Faulk averaged 2,248 total rushing and receiving
yards in that span and 17 touchdowns. In the last two seasons, Faulk has had a
variety of injuries that have caused him to miss chunks of the season. If you
could guarantee that he would be healthy all year, he would still be a top fantasy
pick, but he is too much of a gamble for that.
17) Kevin Jones, Detroit. Jones was the 3rd running back picked in the 2004
draft, behind Steven Jackson and Chris Perry, but he will have the most
immediate impact of any back in the draft. The Lions have upgraded the receiving
core with Roy Williams, but they still need a consistent running attack to take the
pressure off of Joey Harrington. The Lions leading rusher in 2003 was Shawn
Bryson with just 606 yards. Jones’ outside speed and his ability to hit the home
run on every play make him the 2004 starter.
18) Corey Dillon, New England. Dillon comes to the Patriots with the reputation
as somewhat of a problem child, but he should be much happier in a winning
environment. Dillon will be 30 years old in October, and suffered from a groin
injury last season, but he has more than enough in the tank for a big season in
2004. Dillon has two solid backups in Kevin Faulk and rookie Cedric Cobbs, so he
will probably not get the 300 plus carries that he did in his heyday with Cincinnati.
19) Stephen Davis, Carolina. Davis came over last year as a free agent from the
Washington Redskins, and might have been the best pickup of the 2003 season.
Davis’ value as a fantasy player is hurt by the fact that he doesn’t catch the ball a
lot out of the backfield. Davis had 14 catches last year, a very small number for
someone who had 318 rushing attempts. His carries this year are sure to go
down, as they get backup DeShaun Foster more involved, and they open up the
passing offense more with Jake Delhomme.
20) Curtis Martin, NY Jets. Last year, Martin became the third back in history to
have nine straight 1,000 yard seasons. He is one of the most durable backs in
the league and even at age 31, he should not have much of a problem making it
10 straight. A full year of a healthy Chad Pennington should also help take the
pressure off. One concern is his touchdown numbers, which have dropped from
10 in 2001, to just 2 last year. The Jets prefer the bigger back, Lamont Jordan, to
come in on goal line situations.
21) Charlie Garner, Tampa Bay. As of right now Garner is the top back,
especially with Michael Pittman getting a three game suspension. A durable
player for most of his career, Garner was limited with a knee injury last year with
the Raiders. The good news is that Garner is familiar with coach Jon Gruden’s
system, having excelled in it in Oakland. However, 33 year old running backs
coming off injury are a big risk. Don’t look for him to approach the 1,900 total
rushing and receiving yards he had in 2002.
22) Warrick Dunn, Atlanta. Dunn really struggled in the beginning of 2003,
amassing just 40 yards per game for the first half of the year. Dunn then had two
breakout games, against the Giants and Saints, where he topped the 160 yard
mark each time. He then tore a ligament in his left foot and missed the last five
games of the season. Dunn will not be 100% in training camp, but should be
ready to go at the start of the year. Dunn will continue to split time with T.J
Duckett.
23) Michael Bennett, Minnesota. Update 9/3. Bennett’s will miss at least the
first regular season game. After a productive 2002 season, a stress fracture in
his foot limited him to just 90 rushes in 2003. Bennett still averaged 5 yards per
carry, and has the ability to take it all the way on any play. However, with the
emergence of Onterrio Smith, and the steady presence of Moe Williams, there
does not seem to be enough carries to keep everyone happy.
24) Travis Henry, Buffalo. Travis Henry was none to pleased last season when
the Bills invested a first round pick in Willis McGahee, and he ran like a man on a
mission all year. Henry may not have the upside of a healthy McGahee, but he
can still get you close to 1,400 yards, even in a season like last year when the
passing game really struggled. While Henry has had problems with fumbling in
the past, it is the presence of the much hyped McGahee that is going to limit his
playing time this year.
25) Quentin Griffin, Denver. Griffin was drafted in the 4th round in 2003 out of
Oklahoma. Griffin was an extremely effective runner at the collegiate level, but
was drafted low due to his 5’7”, 195 pound frame. With Clinton Portis now
playing for the Redskins, there is a job opening for a lead runner in Denver. Griffin
ran for 210 yards in the final two games last year, showing he can be an effective
runner at this level. Griffin should share carries with Garrison Hearst and rookie
Tatum Bell, but he is the leader for the number one job.
26) Thomas Jones, Chicago. Jones was the sixth pick overall in the 2000 draft,
and was considered a bust by all accounts after his first three seasons with the
Arizona Cardinals. Last year, Jon Gruden and Tampa Bay took a chance on him
and he responded with 627 yards on 4.6 yards per carry. That was almost a yard
per carry more than his previous high. The Bears have now rewarded him with a
4 year, $10 million free agent deal, but he is still going to have to share carries
with incumbent Anthony Thomas.
27) Lee Suggs, Cleveland. Suggs is a player of great interest, who may make or
break a lot of fantasy teams this year. After sustaining a torn rotator cuff, and
getting only 10 carries in the first 14 games, Suggs got 46 carries in the last two
games and rushed for 252 yards. Suggs also missed most of the 2001 college
season with a torn ACL, which is fully healed. The worst case scenario for Suggs
is that he splits carries with William Green, however he could be the featured
back if Green continues to have off-field problems.
28) Chris Brown, Tennessee. Brown’s fantasy value has skyrocketed now that
Eddie George has signed with the Dallas Cowboys. At 6’3” and 219 pounds,
Brown is physically similar to George, and even runs with the same upright
running style. Being eight years his junior, Brown is a lot quicker to the hole, and
has an acceleration that George has not seen in years. Brown will be backed up
by Antowain Smith and Robert Holcombe. But Brown will have to be the man if
this team has designs on the Super Bowl.
29) DeShaun Foster, Carolina. Foster is one of the best backup running backs in
the league, and he proved it in last years’ playoffs, rushing for 95 yards against
St. Louis and having an incredible 33 yard touchdown run in the Super Bowl. Now
that he is over the injuries that plagued him earlier in his career, Foster should
be starting somewhere, but is stuck behind a great runner in Stephen Davis.
Foster will get increased carries this year, but his real value will not be shown
until at least 2005.
30) T.J. Duckett, Atlanta. Warrick Dunn’s injury late last season opened the
door for Duckett to be a full time starter. The results were mixed, as he was
mediocre the first two games, but turned it on the last three, averaging 88 yards
per game. At 6’1” and 254 pounds, Duckett is the prototypical big back who
needs to get a lot of carries to be effective. That way, he can wear down
opposing defenses in the fourth quarter. Look for Duckett’s numbers to continue
to improve but he is still hurt by the presence of Dunn.
31) Willis McGahee, Buffalo. McGahee is one of the biggest wild cards of this
season. After tearing his ACL in January of 2001, McGahee should be completely
healed by the beginning of the year. Still, it will have been almost two years since
he has last played football, and he has never run a down in the NFL. GM Tom
Donahoe invested a lot of his personal reputation by drafting McGahee in the first
round last year, and the Bills will give him an opportunity this season. McGahee’s
real impact will be in 2005.
32) Eddie George, Dallas. There is no denying that George has had a great
eight year career with the Oilers / Titans, but he has clearly lost at least a step.
George can get you 1,000 yards on the ground, but he needs over 300 carries,
as he has only averaged 3.2 yards per carry the last three seasons. The
Cowboys will give him the opportunity to be the feature back, but Bill Parcells is
not afraid to stick him on the bench if rookie Julius Jones looks to be the better
runner. George is a risky pick at this point.
33) Tyrone Wheatley, Oakland. The Raiders tried to bring in a featured back
like Corey Dillon, but they ended up with consolation prizes, Amos Zereoue and
Troy Hambrick. Coach Norv Turner has said that he wants to find one featured
running back, and let him have the majority of the carries. As of now, it appears
that person will be either Wheatley or Justin Fargas, and it probably won’t be
decided until training camp. Even though Wheatley is getting up there in age, he
can still be an effective runner when healthy.
34) Travis Minor, Miami. With Ricky Williams deciding that he is going to make
smoking marijuana a full time career, there is a giant hole to fill at tailback for the
Dolphins.This is Minor’s fourth year in the league, but he has very little wear and
tear with just 144 total carries. When he has played, Minor has showed he can
be a shifty back, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The big question is whether he
can carry a full time load at just 205 pounds. We will find out soon enough.
35) Steven Jackson St. Louis. The Rams obviously feel that the rookie Jackson
is the heir apparent to Marshall Faulk, which is why they traded up in the first
round of the draft to get him. Faulk is entering his 11th season in the league, and
has only made 21 starts over the last two seasons due to injuries. When
healthy, Faulk is the type of back who stays on the field for all three downs.
However, he is still suffering from knee problems and that means Jackson will get
on the field more.
36) Emmitt Smith, Arizona. Update 8/15. Coach Dennis Green had surprisingly
named Smith the starter even though most pundits believed that Shipp was
easily the more talented running back. Now Shipp could miss the first half of the
regular season after dislocating his left ankle. It is our opinion that Smith has
very little left in the tank as evidenced by his 2.8 yards per carry last season in
limited action. Damien Anderson and Josh Scobey are expected to battle for the
backup job.
37) William Green, Cleveland. After being a number one draft pick in 2002, and
gaining close to 900 yards in his rookie season, big things were expected from
Green in 2003. However, Green suffered a series of off the field incidents
including a substance abuse suspension, an alleged stabbing by his wife, and a
short jail sentence. Green was considered a character risk coming out of Boston
College and his problems have followed him to the pros. The likelihood is that he
is the backup behind Lee Suggs.
38) Chris Perry, Cincinnati. Perry was a surprise first round pick for Cincinnati,
as he was selected over Virginia Tech’s Kevin Jones, and that the Bengals
already had Rudi Johnson on their roster. The Bengals were obviously concerned
that Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, and the
presence of Perry at least gives them some leverage on the contract
negotiations. Johnson will be the featured runner this year, but Cincinnati is
going to give Perry a good amount of carries.
39) Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh. The 32 year old Bettis took a dramatic cut in
salary in order to stay with the Steelers, and he claims he was promised a
chance to compete for the starting job. With big money going to Duce Staley
though, that does not seem like a realistic option. Bettis will likely not get
anywhere close to the 811 yards he had last year, and at 3.3 yards per carry, he
doesn’t have much to complain about. Look for Bettis’ touchdowns to also go
down as Staley is capable in goal line situations.
40) Garrison Hearst, Denver. Hearst comes to the Mile High city after spending
six seasons with the 49ers. Hearst ran for almost 1,600 yards in 1998 but his
rushing yards and attempts have been in a decline ever since. In San Francisco,
Hearst had to split time with Kevan Barlow. In Denver, he will compete with
Quentin Griffin, and rookie Tatum Bell. The 33 year-old Hearst is also coming off
arthroscopic knee surgery which is another potential limitation.
41) Julius Jones, Dallas. There were a lot of Cowboy fans unhappy when Dallas
decided to pass on Steven Jackson in the draft, in a trade that netted then an
additional first round pick from Buffalo. Bill Parcells obviously felt comfortable
getting a back in the second round and Jones is the man. Now with signing of
Eddie George, the pressure is off Jones to fill the featured back role. Jones will
still get plenty of carries though as Coach Bill Parcells does not want to stunt his
growth.
42) Kevin Faulk, New England. After two prior seasons where he rushed a total
of 92 times, Faulk rebounded nicely in 2003. The problem with Faulk as a fantasy
player is that he is a glorified third down back. Faulk might be the featured back
for a couple of games if Corey Dillon is hurt, but his carries will be down from last
year. Faulk will see more time on third down with Larry Centers retired, and his
receiving numbers should go up slightly as a consequence.
43) Anthony Thomas, Chicago. Despite having gained over 1,000 yards in two
of his three seasons, and being named the NFC offensive rookie of the year in
2001, Bears management has always seemed to be looking for his replacement.
Now that Chicago has brought in Thomas Jones to be more of a home run threat,
Thomas is sure to see less than the 244 carries he got in 2003. There were some
rumors that Thomas might be traded, but now it is fairly certain that he will not
be going anywhere.
44) Lamont Jordan, NY Jets. At 5’10” and 230 pounds, Jordan is a bruising
style of back who brings a different style of running than Curtis Martin. Jordan
has the talent to be a full time back in the league, but he has been stuck behind
Martin for three years now. Unlike the situation in San Francisco, where Kevan
Barlow and Garrison Hearst split a lot of series, the Jets prefer Martin to carry the
vast majority of the load. Unless Jordan is dealt to another team, look for his
playing time to be up only marginally over last year.
45) Onterrio Smith, Minnesota. Smith fell to the fourth round of the 2003 draft
due to some character issues, but he quickly showed that his ability warranted a
much higher selection. Smith amassed 579 yards last year despite starting only 3
games. He had two games where he rushed over 140 yards, and he had a
whopping 5.4 yards per carry. With Michael Bennett recovered from the stress
fracture in his foot, Smith will have to wait at least another year to be a featured
back. When he does get the chance, look out.
46) Richie Anderson, Dallas
47) Michael Pittman, Tampa Bay
48) Ron Dayne, NY Giants
49) Jamal Robertson, San Francisco
50) Sammy Morris, Miami
