Chad Pennington, NY Jets. The Jets losing Pennington for the first half of the
year was the biggest blow to any team, outside of the Falcons losing Mike Vick.
Pennington means to the Jets what Tom Brady means to the Patriots. In 2002,
he showed he was one of the most accurate passers in the league. Now he has
two big weapons in Santana Moss and Justin McCareins, who came over from
Tennessee for a second round pick. Both receivers should have big years, and
Pennington will quickly return to his 2002 form.
Jake Delhomme, Carolina. There is a great buzz surrounding Delhomme due to
his heroic effort in the Super Bowl, but what people are forgetting is that he also
had a strong regular season. Delhomme threw for over 3,200 yards in an offense
that was heavily dependant on the running game. The Panthers have two
excellent backs in Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster so Delhomme will never
get the pass attempts to get to 4,000 yards, but that doesn’t mean that he is
not capable of doing it if necessary
Quarterback Busts
Mark Brunell, Washington. Brunell will be 34 before the start of the season, but
he still has the tools to be a top NFL quarterback. The problem with Brunell is
that he has taken a lot of hits over the years, and you do not know if he will hold
up physically. Brunell played sparingly in 2003 and he will likely be rusty in the
beginning of the year. The Redskins may have the best backup in the league in
Patrick Ramsey, and it is conceivable that Ramsey comes in for an injured Brunell,
and never relinquishes the starting job.
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati. Palmer is one of the more intriguing selections of this
year. He has been named the starter for the Bengals, over Jon Kitna, who had a
solid 2003 season for the Bengals. Part of the reason Palmer is starting is due to
his tremendous potential. The other part is that he is being paid way too much
money to sit on the bench. With Kitna still on the team as his backup, Palmer is a
very risky selection as Coach Marvin Lewis could pull him if he has a couple of bad
games.
Running Back Sleepers
Domanick Davis, Houston. Davis might have been the steal of the 2003 draft as
a fourth round pick out of LSU. Davis played in 14 games, but only started in 10.
If you take the 10 games that he started and project that out to 16 games,
Davis’ total would have been a lot closer to 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Davis will also be the beneficiary of having a healthy quarterback in David Carr
and the overall maturation of a young Texans offense.
Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia. At 5’8” and 200 pounds, Westbrook is small
back physically, but he runs like he is a lot bigger. Westbrook had an impressive
2003 season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, before tearing his left triceps tendon
in the last game of the regular season. With Duce Staley now in Pittsburgh and
Correll Buckhalter out for the year, Westbrook wis the featured back. Westbrook
will come back healthy in 2004 and pick up some of Staley’s yards, and the
majority of his 52 catches last year.
Kevin Jones, Detroit. Jones was the 3rd running back picked in the 2004 draft,
behind Steven Jackson and Chris Perry, but he will have the most immediate
impact of any back in the draft. The Lions have upgraded the receiving core with
Roy Williams, but they still need a consistent running attack to take the pressure
off of Joey Harrington. The Lions leading rusher in 2003 was Shawn Bryson with
just 606 yards. Jones’ outside speed and his ability to hit the home run on every
play make him the 2004 starter.
Running Back Busts
Travis Henry, Buffalo. Travis Henry was none to pleased last season when the
Bills invested a first round pick in Willis McGahee, and he ran like a man on a
mission all year. Henry may not have the upside of a healthy McGahee, but he
can still get you close to 1,400 yards, even in a season like last year when the
passing game really struggled. While Henry has had problems with fumbling in
the past, it is the presence of the much hyped McGahee that is going to limit his
playing time this year.
Stephen Davis, Carolina. Davis came over last year as a free agent from the
Washington Redskins, and might have been the best pickup of the 2003 season.
Davis’ value as a fantasy player is hurt by the fact that he doesn’t catch the ball a
lot out of the backfield. Davis had 14 catches last year, a very small number for
someone who had 318 rushing attempts. His carries this year are sure to go
down, as they get backup DeShaun Foster more involved, and they open up the
passing offense more with Jake Delhomme.
Curtis Martin, NY Jets. Last year, Martin became the third back in history to have
nine straight 1,000 yard seasons. He is one of the most durable backs in the
league and even at age 31, he should not have much of a problem making it 10
straight. A full year of a healthy Chad Pennington should also help take the
pressure off. One concern is his touchdown numbers, which have dropped from
10 in 2001, to just 2 last year. The Jets prefer the bigger back, Lamont Jordan, to
come in on goal line
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Andre Johnson, Houston. Johnson was the third overall pick from the University
of Miami in the 2003 draft, and was pretty much all that was advertised in his
rookie season. After analyzing his statistics, it is obvious that Johnson will have
an even bigger year in 2004 if quarterback David Carr can stay healthy. Johnson
averaged 73 yards receiving in the games that Carr pound frame to score more
touchdowns this year.
Justin McCareins, NY Jets. McCareins comes over from Tennessee for a 2004
second round pick. The Titans didn’t want to give him up, but they have depth at
the receiver position, and they needed the draft pick to stock other areas.
McCareins is just starting to come into his own in his fourth NFL season. He has
the size to go over the middle and the speed to hit the home run. This will be his
first opportunity to start every game of the regular season, and there is no
reason to think he won’t thrive in this new
Tyrone Calico, Tennessee. Calico was a rookie last year from small conference,
Middle Tennessee State, so the Titans knew he would need development time.
Calico showed tons of talent at the beginning of the year, including 92 yard
receiving games against New England and Houston. However, Calico did not
catch a pass the last six weeks as his playing time plummeted due to dropped
balls. Calico will step into the number three receiving role with Justin McCareins
traded, increasing his value immensely.
Wide Receiver Busts
Kevin Dyson, San Diego. Dyson could very well end up being a starter but he will
be battling for playing time with Eric Parker, Tim Dwight and Reche Caldwell
Dyson has only made 11 starts over the past two seasons, and missed basically
the entire 2003 campaign due to a torn Achilles tendon. Dyson is listed a top 50
receiver in other places, but he is number 79 in our current rankings.
Rod Smith, Denver. Smith has been one of the best receivers in the NFL over the
last seven years, but he is starting to show some declining skills at 35 years of
age. His receiving yards have dropped an average of 19% every year since he
had 1,602 in 2000. If that happens again this year, then Smith will be down
around 700 yards. That will not happen as long as he stays healthy, because he
is still the best receiver that the Broncos have, and having quarterback Jake
Plummer for a full season will help.
Tight End Sleepers
Billy Miller, Houston. At just 230 pounds, Miller is the prototypical all catch, no
block tight end. Of course, receiving is all we care about in Fantasy Football. Miller
is a little bit of a risky pick, as he could get pushed for playing time from 2003
second round pick, Bennie Joppru. Joppru missed the entire last season with a
pelvic hernia. Miller will be helped by the full-time return of quarterback David
Carr.
Matt Schobel, Cincinnati. Schobel is part of a three headed tandem at tight end
for the Bengals. Reggie Kelly is the best blocker of the group, Schobel is the best
pass catcher, and Tony Stewart is the best combination tight end. Last year,
Schobel raised his average from 7.9 to 13.8 yards per catch. That shows big play
ability, but he will never be an upper echelon fantasy tight end with that crowd at
his position.
Tight End Busts
Erron Kinney, Tennessee. With the now retired Frank Wycheck suffering from
concussions, Kinney had a breakout season in 2003 and was rewarded with a
new five year contract. Kinney must be shaking his head a little bit over the
Titans drafting of Ben Troupe in the second round. Troupe is an accomplished
pass receiver that will challenge Kinney for playing time, but Kinney will be the
main guy in 2004.
